| AFTER
THE TALIBAN
|
| Following the removal of the Taliban and the establishment of a more |
| stable, internationally accepted government, the prospect of Afghanistan |
| becoming a major central Asian energy transit route has re-emerged. |
| At a first glance, investment in and revenues from pipeline projects |
| crossing Afghanistan could improve economic stability and encourage the |
| inflow of foreign capital at a critical time. But the reservations of the |
| international investment community, wary of becoming involved in a |
| still-volatile area, suggest enthusiasm about pipeline projects in the |
| country may be
premature.
|
| The Taliban promoted Afghanistan as an oil and gas transit point for |
| exports from the Caspian to the Mideast Gulf. In 1997, Turkmenistan |
| brokered the creation of an international consortium, CentGas, under the |
| leadership of Unocal, which planned to build a $2bn gas line across |
| Afghanistan. The imposition of US and, later, UN sanctions against the |
| country and then Unocal's withdrawal put a stop to the plan. |
| The project envisaged a 1,270-km, 20bn cubic metres a year link from the |
| border with Turkmenistan, along the Herat-Kandahar road, to the Pakistan |
| border, at Quetta, ending at Mulat. |
| Another pipeline project had been discussed to carry up to 1m barrels a |
| day of crude from Chardzhou, in Turkmenistan, to Pakistan's Arabian Sea |
| coast, across Afghanistan. The Central Asian Oil Pipeline Project would |
| have been linked via the Chardzhou refinery to western Siberia's |
| oilfields. However, the US' Energy Information Administration says "this |
| project remains highly doubtful for the time being". |
| A recent policy paper on Afghanistan by US-based Carnegie Endowment (a |
| non-profit organisation that aims to improve co-operation between nations |
| and promote active international engagement by the US) says building |
| pipelines across Afghanistan could become "one of the main ways to breathe |
| life" into the war-ravaged country. |
| Just as important, the paper says, will be the development of an energy |
| infrastructure policy for the region, especially with countries that |
| border Afghanistan to the north. |
| This sentiment is echoed by the World Bank, which says the "regional |
| environment around Afghanistan ... is very important for a reconstruction |
| strategy". It adds that: "The spillover of ethnic groups and conflict into |
| the bordering areas of neighbouring countries, which, for the most part |
| are sparsely populated and poor, means targeted development programmes are |
| also needed in these 'risk areas' to prevent them from continuing to be |
| reservoirs for conflict in Afghanistan and in their own countries." |
| However, schemes to build pipelines in Afghanistan could be to Russia's |
| detriment and it is unlikely Moscow would support any such schemes, |
| especially given its major pipeline plans and their importance to the |
| national economy (see main article). |
| But some Caspian states would favour any revitalisation of the Afghanistan |
| pipeline projects. Last October, the president of Turkmenistan, Saparmurat |
| Niyazov, was reported to have written to the UN expressing his support for |
| a gas pipeline across Afghanistan to Pakistan, claiming this would help |
| rebuild Afghanistan and "accelerate the social and economic development of |
| the adjacent region". Turkmenistan, like neighbouring Uzbekistan, has |
| massive gas reserves, but very limited export routes. |
| Nonetheless, a swift revival of high-risk projects is unlikely. As the |
| World Bank points out, the Afghanistani economy is in a state of |
| collapse. |
| "The key economic institutions of state - central bank, treasury, tax |
| collection and customs, statistics, civil service, law and order, judicial |
| system - are extremely weak or missing. Basic infrastructure - roads, |
| bridges, canals, telecommunications, electricity, markets - have been |
| destroyed or oriented toward the war effort." |
| The detailed paper recommends a three-stage approach to rehabilitate |
| Afghanistan, with the first initial phase focusing on restoring basic |
| social and economic elements. However, other steps, as part of a |
| reconstruction strategy "will take time to reach fruition", the paper |
| says, noting that this includes the energy sector. |
| (HH) Analysis - Pipeline survey - Facing rapid growth. |
| (SH) Spurred by expectations of rising demand for natural gas over the |
| next 20 years and with development of Arctic gas riches an immediate |
| prospect, pipeline construction across North America is on the verge of |
| unparalleled growth, writes WJ Simpson. |
| (PP) 14 |